Nov Dec
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[Traders/Investors] Historically, how do the months of Nov and Dec perform compared to Jan/Feb?
I was lucky enough to sell all my stocks when the DOW was at 14000. Now I'm looking to get back in, and I know that timing the market is bad, but either way I want to buy stocks again. I'm looking for advice based on historical performance.
Based on history which is a better time to buy? Nov/Dec months or the Jan/Feb months? We'll need to take into consideration the fact that a new President will enter office in January.
Historically Jan is the strongest month of the year in part to pension, 401(k), bonus, and other retirement money that comes in the market. In 2009 the question is what bonuses and will people put money in the market?
The week before Thanksgiving thru Jan are normally strong.
However keep in mind that even though something is historically true, does not mean it is always true.
Keep in mind that Jan 2008 was the worst performing month since about 1933. The old adage, "so goes January, so goes the year" will obviously be true in 2008.
Also keep in mind that we are in a Bear Market, which can buck any historical trend.
Also keep in mind that we are in the worst bear market since 1973-74, and some companies are at lifetime risk (GM, F, Chrysler, and many others).
I think anyone going long might be good for a trade but I would be hedging that with puts and short calls against a long position.
I also think that 2009 will NOT be a turn around year for the economy unless Obama reverses all his tax and socialist programs, and does something like eliminate capital gains for 2 years. This will be a short term boost, but I expect the economy to stay in recession until further notice.
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Nov Dec
Nov Dec